Anatomy of a self-financing study for HIV-AIDS skeptics

Background

• 1) An AIDS epidemic does not exist
• 2) HIV does not cause AIDS
• 3) 2 positive HIV antibody tests using different methods are not correlated with ongoing HIV infection
• 4) AIDS is not lethal
• 5) HIV infection does not necessarily lead to any lethal disease
• 6) AIDS can be caused by use of strong (legal or illegal) drugs, AZT being one of them
• 7) AIDS in promiscuous homosexuals is caused by rectal insemnation
• 8) AIDS in hemophiliacs is caused by foreign Factor VIII products
• 9) AIDS in Africa is caused by malnourishment
• 10) AIDS in transfusion recipients is caused by the underlying disease
• 11) AIDS in children of drug abusing mothers is caused by this very drug abuse
• 12) AIDS can be caused by the strong belief that one suffers from a lethal disease

Most of these can be found in the writings of Peter Duesberg or on the Rethinking Aids Web site. For the mainstream scientific evidence against these claims and for the causative role of HIV for AIDS, compare the paper Relationship between HIV and AIDS by the National Institutes of Health.

Here I want to propose a combination of scientific study and business plan that has the following properties:

• The study will decide whether HIV infection leads to premature death or not, even in the absence of all the factors described in 6)-12). The problems resulting from differing definitions of AIDS are avoided.
• The business part of the proposal will generate money if HIV infection does not lead to premature death; otherwise it will loose money.

Proposal

• 2 positive HIV antibody tests using different methods
• not having taken in the past or currently taking any strong legal or illegal drugs, including AZT and Factor VIII based products
• not malnourished
• no known severe diseases
• not engaging in receptive anal intercourse
• not born to a drug abusing mother

In addition, as a condition of the insurance policy, the policy holder agrees to submit to regular thorough health examinations, the results of which form the basis for the accompanying scientific study. Furthermore, the policy holder forfeits all their rights resulting from the policy should they start to take any strong legal or illegal drugs at any time in the future without the consent of the insurer.

To make sure that the results of the study be made public, it is preferable that the to-be-created insurance company be a publicly traded company and will hence have to issue regular business reports.

The end of the study can be defined as follows:

• bankruptcy of the insurance company, or
• success of the insurance company, as evidenced by rising stock prices and adoption of similar policies by other life insurers.

Rationale

It can be assumed that these people are eager to buy the afore mentioned policy (even for a higher than usual price) since they cannot currently get any life insurance policy without lying (and hence running the risk of forfeiting all policy benefits) and since they have an interest in providing for their immediate family.

The very fact that the insurer believes that HIV does not cause lethal disease and is even willing to bet on this belief should take care of claim 12. Indeed, it can be argued that this proposal constitutes the only possible study that cannot be attacked by claim 12 (short of not disclosing the HIV status to patients, which clearly would be unethical).

Should the medical establishment refuse to abandon the HIV-AIDS hypothesis even in the event of a positive outcome of the study, then the business part will at least have created a source of permanent income which can be used to finance further investigations. In fact, the profit of the insurance company will be higher in this case, since competitors will presumably be reluctant to adopt similar policies.

Update 16-April-1997

Since HIV skeptics don't believe that protease inhibitors can be effective against AIDS (sometimes they claim even that they are dangerous and cause AIDS symptoms), I have to modify my above challenge so that the insured persons will not be allowed to take AZT or protease inhibitors.